I Told You So (sort of)

Posted on September 2nd, 2007 in Iraq, Middle East, War by Will

This blog post by an Australian officer who just got back from Iraq (linked from a Washington Times article) has some great comments on the Sunni tribes’ revolt (which I discussed earlier). It supports my general view that the tribal leaders’ falling out with al-Qaeda is a result of a breakdown in their formerly-shared interest in stopping Shi’a power, but Kilcullen gives a lot more insight into the precise reasons. For one thing, he notes that tribal leaders have been thinking ahead to what will happen when the US leaves, and realizing that al Qaeda is as big a threat to their power as the government. This raises an interesting question: maybe Congressional Democrats’ constant talk of withdrawing from Iraq has actually helped the war effort?

Kilcullen also points out that the tribes’ “flip” is probably the best development in the last few years, but ironically it wasn’t an intended goal of the surge. Also, I would file all his comments about the greater effectiveness of local community organizations in securing order under the heading of “Edmund Burke was right all along.”

But on to my main point. The catalyst for the tribes’ flip, Kilcullen says, was jihadists trying to marry local women. Apparently al Qaeda commonly marries its people into powerful local families, but that goes against Iraq tribal tradition.In most parts of the Arab Middle East first cousins are regarded as ideal marriage partners–thus obviously keeping most marriages within tribes, and making marriage to al Qaeda outsiders less desirable. (I’m surprised that I can’t find a good discussion of this on either Google or Wikipedia, but Stanley Kurtz’s discussion of the topic last spring was thorough, even if his conclusions were questionable.) It’s interesting that all the places Kilcullen says al Qaeda has used intermarriage successfully–Pakistan, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Indonesia–are non-Arab. Though Islam is almost universally interpreted to allow cousin marriage, this doesn’t mean that it’s a specifically Islamic practice. In fact it predates Islam in Arabia, which explains why it might be a blind spot for al Qaeda types who study only Islamic, not general Middle Eastern, history. (The big catch here is that most of the al Qaeda leadership is Arab, but I don’t know how much cousin marriage is still practiced by jetsetting Saudi construction tycoons.)

Which brings me to the most interesting line in Kilcullen’s post: “AQ, with their hyper-reductionist version of “Islam” stripped of cultural content, discounted the tribes’ view as ignorant, stupid and sinful.” I think this is fascinating because it points to the way in which al Qaeda is arguably a post-Enlightenment entity. Like the 19th century Western Orientalists Edward Said critiqued, al Qaeda subscribes to the idea that there is only one way to practice Islam in its essence–but whereas Orientalists would’ve said other traditions were just irrelevant furniture making it hard to see the fundamentally Islamic character of every Islamic culture, al Qaeda seems to view anything not explicitly contained within its interpretation of the Koran as being not just neutral, but actually ANTI-Islamic.

Why does this matter? Well, I think we inadvertently contribute, in some small way, to helping al Qaeda’s essentialist view of things when we talk about the “Islamic” period in Middle Eastern history, by which we mean only the Umayyad and Abbasid caliphates. For example, I visited Islamic Cairo when I was in Egypt, and a Google search reveals more examples of such usage like this, this, and this. So Western scholars are implying that it was only under the early caliphates that the Middle East was truly “Islamic,” which also implies that the Ottoman Empire was, and the modern Middle East is, somehow not Islamic. This plays right into the hands of an enemy which sees the Umayyads and Abbasids as homogeneous totalitarian theocracies, and which wants to bring them back.

9/11 and Unity

Posted on August 9th, 2007 in Iraq, War by Will

There isn’t too much thought or coherent reasoning behind this article, but it does raise an interesting point: we were much more unified immediately after 9/11. It’s easy to blame Bush or the Democrats Iraq or American forgetfulness or the media or some combination, and to say as this guy does that because of Iraq, “America’s fabric is pulling apart like a cheap sweater.”

I don’t think our national “fabric” is nearly that strained, but I also think that the post-9/11 unity was only illusory, and our divides run deeper Iraq . It only lasted as long as we could avoid talking about what to actually do. Once we have to take some action, all the political divides which had been brewing since Vietnam came back to the surface. Everybody looked at the inkblot and saw what they wanted to. What’s remarkable is less that 9/11’s unity wore off so fast but that it made a difference in the first place.

Re: Hope on the Battlefield

Posted on August 8th, 2007 in Drugs, Ethics and Morality, Iraq, War by Will

I have to admit that I haven’t read Marshall, but I’ve seen him critiqued pretty heavily by the most recent generation of US WWII military historians (most notably Michael Doubler and Peter Mansoor), as part of the general effort to rehability the reputation of the US army in Europe. There’s apparently good evidence that Marshall was sloppy or maybe even dishonest in his research methodology (the argument is summed up here), and some WWII soldiers’ memoirs have explicitly said Marshall’s ratio didn’t apply to their units. (The only example I can remember is this one.) So I’m a little bit dubious of any argument that relies on Marshall. (From my reading of the critiques of Marshall, I think Grossman is right that soldiers more often just aim a little high, rather than not shooting at all as Marshall argued.)

And I agree with Joe that whatever inclination we have against killing (I think more societally conditioned than natural) is more easily overcome when dealing with those we know and who’ve offended us. A book I read recently argued that humans have been extremely violent throughout most of our history, and it’s only modern states that have managed to curb our tendency toward domestic violence. But when those states send people off to fight each other, isn’t there much less emotional motivation to kill?

Hope on the Battlefield

Posted on August 8th, 2007 in Drugs, Ethics and Morality, Iraq, War by Joe

I do not read much about military history because I usually find it boring, but Wayne found this article and it surprised me. I guess I do not know at all if what he is saying accurately represents the evidence, or if the studies he sites have any merit. However, he seems to consider a variety of arguments, so it appears plausable.

This stuck out to me as problematic:

“I have realized that there was one major factor missing from the common understanding of this process, a factor that answers this question and more: the simple and demonstrable fact that there is, within most men and women, an intense resistance to killing other people.”

“Indeed, the study of killing by military scientists, historians, and psychologists gives us good reason to feel optimistic about human nature, for it reveals that almost all of us are overwhelmingly reluctant to kill a member of our own species, under just about any circumstance.”

I could easily mistake these passages as stating that people have this same reluctance to violence at home, in regular society. Most murders, rapes and other violence are directed at people who know their attacker. On a battlefield you do not know the person you are harming, but if you know him, live with him, or have a grudge against him, you might feel compelled to hurt him. You may even feel justified.

There might be hope for less violence on a battlefield (although that seems to be self-defeating), but I do not think it applies at home, where we do not need to manufacture contempt against others.

Could any American politician write something this good?

Posted on August 5th, 2007 in Ethics and Morality, Iraq, War by Will

There’s a fantastic editorial by Canadian MP Michael Ignatieff in the NYT today. A few quotes:

“The philosopher Isaiah Berlin once said that the trouble with academics and commentators is that they care more about whether ideas are interesting than whether they are true. Politicians live by ideas just as much as professional thinkers do, but they can’t afford the luxury of entertaining ideas that are merely interesting.”

“The costs of staying will be borne by Americans, while the cost of leaving will be mostly borne by Iraqis. That in itself suggests how American leaders are likely to decide the question.”

“Many of those who correctly anticipated catastrophe did so not by exercising judgment but by indulging in ideology.” [He goes on, without explicitly saying so, to basically endorse the paleoconservative critique of the Iraq War, not the DailyKos critique. Definitely worth reading, coming from a Canadian member of the Liberal Party.]

And best of all: “The vital judgments a politician makes every day are about people: whom to trust, whom to believe and whom to avoid.” [So, are political scientists doing the right thing by talking about Theory all the time, or are historians really on the right track?]

Iraq: Tribes vs. al-Qaeda

Posted on August 4th, 2007 in Iraq, Middle East, War by Will

Belatedly following the advice of Capt. Travis Patriquin, the army is apparently trying hard to work with Sunni sheikhs, many of whom have become disillusioned with al Qaeda. Patriquin was killed while this strategy was just getting off the ground (pay link), but it seems to be having some success–for example, Ken Pollack and Michael O’Hanlon claim that al-Anbar province is now one of the safest areas in Iraq. A Lexis Nexis search shows only 4 references to the Sunni Triangle in US newspapers in June and July of this year, down from 19 in the same period last year.

This makes a lot of sense for tribal leaders. They have always jealously guarded their power, against the Ottoman Empire, against the British, and even against Saddam. In 2003, the biggest threat became the US-backed provisional government, which as Patriquin’s slide show pointed out, sought to dismantle tribal leadership and centralize power with Shi’a government in Baghdad. So most of the Sunni sheikhs were willing to cooperate first with their old rivals the Ba’athists, and then with al Qaeda.

But in 2007 it seems pretty ridiculous to suggest that the Shi’a government in Baghdad is actually going to exert centralized control over Anbar. The problem for the sheikhs now is that the (often foreign) terrorists they invited in aren’t willing to leave, and are trying to become an independent power player in the Sunni Triangle, with their own ideological agenda. In much of Iraq, sectarian power struggles drive the violence, and provide an incentive to paper over intra-sectarian differences. But there are no Shi’a in al Anbar, and the Baghdad government is a paper tiger, so the sheikhs are free to turn against al Qaeda. When the US Army comes around at the same time offering money and support to do what you want to do anyway, why not cooperate?

In Baghdad’s confused tangle of sects, people are putting aside jihad against the Crusaders in order to kill each other for more mundane political advantages. In Anbar, the sheikhs line up with the US to hunt down terrorists. But in both cases, al Qaeda is being beaten only because it gets in the way of Iraqi interests hammering out their own future.

Optimistically, I hope the situation in al Anbar offers some small hope for a balance of power between the government and various factions in Iraq, perhaps leading to a sort of de facto federalism. On the other hand, an Iraq which is even partially stabilized by co-opting the tribal power structure won’t be an Iraq with real democracy, individual rights, freedom of religion, women’s rights, or even a government that doesn’t brutalize its own people.

Four Wars in Iraq?

Posted on July 22nd, 2007 in Iraq, Middle East by Will

I think there have really been four overlapping wars going on in Iraq in the past four years.

  1. The US Army vs the Iraqi Army and Republican Guard, March-April 2003. Obviously a clear US victory.
  2. The US vs Ba’athist hardliner guerillas, March 2003-sometime in 2004. It seems to me this war was quietly won–I doubt any Iraqi insurgents are loyal to Saddam anymore.
  3. The US and new Iraqi government vs al Qaeda in Iraq, late 2003-present. I think the US is actually winning this one, as indicated in this article, and by the killings of many al Qaeda leaders. There just aren’t many people in Iraq willing to fight for a new caliphate, or willing to endure the perpetual war al Qaeda demands. I also wonder if, as it looks more and more likely the US will leave soon, those Iraqis who just wanted the US gone are less motivated to help al Qaeda.
  4. Sunni and Shi’a groups vs each other, and vs. the US and Iraqi government, 2005-present. The start date on this one is obviously vague, and maybe you could push it up to 04 or back to early 06. Al Qaeda helped kick off the sectarian squabbles, but they clearly have a life of their own. Once another group has crystallized and is trying to squeeze out your interests, you have to fight back.

So the sad irony, I think, is that al Qaeda is being beaten in Iraq–partly because they’re getting in the way of Sunnis and Shi’a fighting with each other.